What ThinkLab is Hearing: Inside the Tariff Turmoil

As the interiors industry continues to navigate an unsteady economic landscape, tariffs have emerged as another layer of complexity—fueling tough decisions, real fatigue, and unexpected ripple effects across every part of the value chain. Through our most recent round of one-on-one conversations, ThinkLab has been listening closely to what presidents, CEOs, and leaders across the ecosystem are experiencing in real time.

What follows is a synthesis of those anonymized voices, supported by visual snapshots that aim to bring clarity, connection, and context to the moment we’re all working through—together.

Manufacturers: Tactical Pressure and Strategic Uncertainty

Manufacturers are in a reactive posture, juggling questions around pricing changes, when to act, and—critically—how to communicate the change. Whether it’s labeled a “tariff recovery fee,” a “surcharge,” or a “price increase,” the need for clarity is high.

While the immediate chaos of March (described by one interviewee as “Defcon 5”) has cooled, anxiety remains high—particularly among smaller brands and more so for furniture manufacturers than other product categories. Time is a growing cost center; leadership teams report fielding 4–5 calls a day just to manage internal alignment and customer expectations. As one interviewee put it: “The business swirl is the untold cost.”

From an operational standpoint, the complications are real. Most ERP systems aren’t built to handle temporary, line-item fee increases. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting from well-meaning partners and clients to hold pricing—even as material costs and tariffs rise. And calculating the true impact? Nearly impossible, with variables differing across  products, inputs, suppliers, and  sourcing origins.

Strategically, the response is fragmented. Some manufacturers are proactively communicating new fee structures to get ahead of it. One client even quoted our own end-user research back to us saying, “We know from ThinkLab research that clients would rather know pricing will double than deal with the uncertainty.” Others are proudly touting their U.S.-based supply chains, promoting price stability—or even specials—while some are holding back, opting for a wait-and-see approach.

Global sourcing, especially from China, presents a real conundrum: while public sentiment paints China as a low-cost provider, one industry leader shared, “You think China is just low cost—but the truth is, other options can’t match their quality, dependability, and technology.”

A+D Firms: Less Panic, More Fatigue

For A&D firms, tariffs have not yet fully rippled through to project execution—but the psychological toll of uncertainty is growing. Designers and architects describe the current moment as “trudging through the mud.” While work is happening, enthusiasm is muted.

Larger firms appear buffered. In some cases, they are even picking up talent from smaller studios that are feeling greater strain. Most say tariffs won’t stop projects already in motion, but concerns are rising for the second half of the year, especially in sectors affected by federal funding shifts.

There’s a growing focus on sourcing strategies, with some early signals that bids from Canada may begin to favor non-U.S. products. Quick-ship options are more appealing than ever, especially as lead time anxiety for many designers eclipses cost as their primary concern. GSA and government-funded work is highly volatile—though some note this follows a familiar post-election pattern: early disruption, then stabilization as priorities of the new administration are clarified.

Architecture and engineering teams within larger firms that focus on science and infrastructure report more dramatic slowdowns, while interiors-focused teams seem to be less directly affected—for now. But volatility is forcing design leaders to play a dual role: not just visionaries, but also risk managers, and sometimes counselors; helping clients “stay the course” in a time of swirling doubt.

Furniture Dealers: Caught in the Crosshairs

Furniture dealers may be feeling the pinch most acutely (To be fair, contractors and project managers are likely feeling the pain even more extremely, though these are not audiences ThinkLab interviewed for this particular effort.) Acting as the interface between manufacturers and end clients, dealers are tasked with communicating unpredictable pricing shifts—often without adequate lead time or clarity (5 percent of what?! LIST, SELL, NET?). As one interviewee put it: “Don’t shoot the messenger.” The good news is that clients are acutely aware of tariffs, so there is less education needed there. The bad news is that they, of course, didn’t budget for this.

Short-term ordering surges—spurred by clients hoping to get ahead of tariff deadlines—have introduced fulfillment chaos. Rushing orders through the system naturally causes errors. Additionally, dealers are being asked to warehouse product arriving far too early, which adds back some of the cost ‘savings’ and increases the risk of damage. What most don’t consider is that these warehousing days sometimes push installation beyond warranty windows, snowballing problems down the line.

The biggest sentiment from dealers? Margins are eroding, fast. One large dealer reported a multi-million-dollar hit this quarter alone from tariff-related issues if they didn’t pass costs along. Traditional 30-day quote validity is becoming unrealistic. Even worse, some manufacturers are raising prices on orders not yet shipped, which increases the communication challenges in an already chaotic environment. Strategically, dealers are forced into the role of mediator—managing not just expectations, but also logistics, finances, and trust.

Where We Go from Here?

In response to this moment of uncertainty, ThinkLab is launching the BASELINE, a dual-track resource designed to offer real-time visibility into industry sentiment and activity across the commercial interiors ecosystem specifically for the product side of the industry. Here’s what’s included:

1. The BASELINE Survey

This quarterly survey will provide a pulse check on industry sentiment, quoting vs ordering, employment, cost pressures index, and more. It’s open to anyone in the ecosystem: manufacturers, dealers, reps, A&D firms, even end users—but access to the results operates on a give-to-get model: you must participate to receive full data access.

2. The BASELINE Podcast

Launching in tandem, this weekly 5–10-minute podcast will answer one timely question per episode—based on real data from the survey and synthesized insights from across the industry. The aim: brief, shareable, actionable intelligence, released every Friday morning starting May 2nd.

Ready to participate? Take the BASELINE survey now and subscribe to the BASELINE Podcast. Let’s build better visibility—together.

Amanda Schneider is president of ThinkLab, the research division of SANDOW. Join in to explore what’s next at thinklab.design/join-in.

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• Amanda Schneider
• supply chains
• Tariffs
• ThinkLab